Is Donald Trump Now Predicted to Win by a Landslide According to a Forecaster Who Previously Backed Kamala Harris?
An election forecaster and data scientist, Thomas Miller, who had earlier predicted a landslide victory for Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, has now shifted his prediction in favor of former President Donald Trump. Miller's model, which prioritizes betting odds from platforms like PredictIt over traditional polling data, currently estimates that Trump could secure 345 Electoral College votes. This significant change occurred after betting odds began favoring Trump starting on October 7, despite historical trends and "fundamentals" suggesting a Democratic victory.
Miller acknowledges that prediction markets often have a Republican bias and adjusts his model accordingly, though he remains uncertain about the extent of this bias for 2024. While polls indicate a tight race between Trump and Harris, betting markets like Polymarket show Trump with a 60.3 percent chance of winning. Other forecasters, such as Allan Lichtman with his "Keys to the White House" model, continue to predict a Harris victory based on long-term historical trends. Miller notes the race has fluctuated between potential landslides for both parties and expects increased volatility as the election approaches on November 5.
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